rennie landscape
Thank you for taking the time to read the Fall 2025 edition of the rennie landscape.
In many ways it's been—to say the least—a chaotic 6 months since we published the spring edition of the rennie landscape. In contrast, Metro Vancouver's housing market and the Canadian economy have eschewed the entropic features of current-day geopolitics, and instead have continued along a path established more than two years earlier. Housing market activity has picked up marginally, but remains suppressed, the labour market remains soft, inflation (thankfully) remains in check, and US tariffs on our exports remain limited due to the CUSMA free-trade agreement.
Speaking of tariffs, it appears we've avoided the worst-case scenario and the impacts, while real, have not been nearly as devastating as we feared in the spring. Uncertainty has abated—we think—and consumer confidence has begun to rebound.
RYAN WYSE
Market Intelligence Manager & Lead Analyst
FALL 2025 | VANCOUVER
The Fall 2025 edition of the rennie landscape examines the broader forces influencing Vancouver’s housing market—offering trusted insight into why the market is behaving the way it is, and what we expect will come next.
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PODCAST
Listen as rennie's intelligence division takes an in depth look at the fall edition of the rennie landscape.
table of contents
RYAN BERLIN
VP Intelligence & Head Economist
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WANTS TO BUILD HOMES, by creating the Build Canada Homes entity. They aren’t likely to reach their goal of 500,000 housing starts but they might increase the supply of affordable housing. First-time buyers are now eligible for a GST rebate on homes under $1.5 million. Developers in BC are now able to defer 75% of DCC and ACC payments until occupancy, but face increased premiums if they want to participate in the MLI Select program.
THE PIPELINE OF FUTURE RENTAL HOUSING IS ROBUST, but comes at a time when rental demand is slowing, potentially jeopardizing future projects. The amount of completed and unsold condo inventory has grown sharply of late, and is projected to increase more. The price-to-rent ratio has undergone a correction in recent years as buyer affordability has materially improved.
A WEAK LABOUR MARKET IS GETTING WEAKER, as unemployment has grown substantially over the past six months. The youth job market is particularly challenged, as unemployment is rising even though participation is falling. GDP growth, which had been fairly stagnant, flipped negative in the second quarter and Canadians have greatly reduced their travel to the US, choosing instead to spend more money at home.
0%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Which rose from an all time low nationally at 4.8% in July 2022
0k
MARKET RENTAL UNITS
Under construction as of the end of Q2 2025.
THE BANK OF CANADA HAS RESUMED LOWERING INTEREST RATES, in response to a weakening economy. The Bank will lower its policy rate further as long as inflation remains in check, which is likely. Long-term bond yields have been trending upward and, with structural changes happening at the global level due to tariffs and disruptions of supply chains, long-term interest rates could rise further.
MORTGAGE DEBT IS ONCE AGAIN RISING, as Canadian borrowers are enjoying lower rates than last year. Debt service ratios have risen marginally but remain stable, while mortgage arrears rates have been consistently increasing but are historically low. The volume of impaired loans held by Canada’s largest banks has grown and could be an indicator of greater stress amongst borrowers. The wave of renewals from pandemic-era mortgages is upon us, and while some borrowers will face higher payments, on the whole homeowners will manage.
$50
BILLION IN DEBT
Taken on by Canadians in the first half of 2025.
THE NUMBER OF NON-PERMANENT RESIDENTS IN CANADA IS SHRINKING, and that has changed population forecasts in BC. Growth is projected to be slower across the province, but will be more acutely felt in some municipalities than others. Temporary residents consume less housing than Canadian-born residents and immigrants, so the reduction in housing demand from a net outflow of non-permanent residents will be less, but will be felt almost entirely in rental housing.
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