rennie landscape
Dear Reader,
We write to you from the midst of a government shutdown, its end still somewhere beyond view. Though we’ve been through closures before, this one arrives at a particularly sensitive moment. More than ever, policy feels central to the story in both housing markets and the broader economy.
From trade and immigration decisions out of D.C., to the Federal Reserve’s push and pull between rate cuts and quantitative tightening, the path ahead looks to be shaped as much by politics as by markets themselves.
It can feel daunting to watch so many forces move at once, many of them far outside any local control. But there’s also room for calm. The trade war, for all its noise, has been less damaging than initially feared to this point. The labor market has lost steam but is still holding firm. And while inflation has begun to nudge higher again, it remains restrained for now.
A thread running through this edition will be the appearance of cracks—small but widening. Across construction, employment, and equities, we see signs of strain, though not yet of fracture. Anticipating those pressures early is key to effectively navigating what comes next.
We hope our commentary helps provide the clarity to do so, and as always, thank you for reading the rennie landscape.
RYAN BERLIN
VP Intelligence & VP Head Economist
FALL 2025 | SEATTLE
The Fall 2025 edition of the rennie landscape examines the broader forces influencing Seattle’s housing market—offering trusted insight into why the market is behaving the way it is, and what we expect will come next.
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table of contents
WILLIAM YE
Market Analyst, Intelligence
LOCAL POLICY IS DRIVING SHIFTS AS MUCH AS ECONOMICS. Return-to-office mandates have increased traffic downtown, but office demand remains muted. Transit expansion has extended the map north and east, while the next phase moves slowly toward ground break. New tariffs on softwood lumber threaten to lift construction costs just as housing supply thins, and Seattle’s new payroll tax on million-dollar earnings will fund a modest start to publicly-owned housing.
NEW SUPPLY IS DRYING UP. Construction and permitting have fallen steadily, ensuring fewer completions ahead. Rent growth has cooled but diverged, with the strongest momentum returning to the Seattle downtown core. Housing sales counts remain 40% below average, but pockets north of the Ship Canal show early signs of recovery.
THE LABOR MARKET IS LOSING SOME OF ITS SHINE. Employment growth has been revised downward, revealing a slower pace of expansion. Seattle still outperforms the nation, led by its information and health sectors, but the cushion is thinner. Equity markets have delivered record gains, much of it concentrated in technology and AI-linked firms, supporting household wealth and spending but heightening concentration risks.
200
FEWER JOBS CREATED
than initially thought over the first half of 2025.
6,500
HOUSING UNITS PERMITTED
over the first half of 2025, down 24% from the same time last year.
POLICY IS PULLING IN TWO DIRECTIONS. Inflation progress has been partially reversed by tariffs and trade frictions. Even as the Fed cuts short-term rates, its ongoing quantitative tightening efforts to offset the easing cycle, keeping mortgage rates higher than the policy rate alone would suggest.
THE ERA OF EASY MONEY HAS ENDED. The Fed’s balance sheet remains far larger than pre-pandemic levels but is shrinking steadily. Elevated rates and a “lock-in” effect have frozen much of the resale market, cushioning home prices but also slowing recovery.
$35 billion
IN MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES
have been rolling off the Federal Reserve's balance sheet every month.
IMMIGRATION SLOWING HAS MEANT STABILITY TODAY, BUT LESS GROWTH TOMORROW. With fewer new arrivals, labor markets have remained tight for the wrong reasons. Seattle’s reliance on international migration leaves it vulnerable should global inflows weaken further.
table of contents
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