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04. demographics
going international
One of the most important factors driving housing demand is the simple fact that more people means more homes are needed. Historically, home prices tend to rise fastest in places where population growth exceeds the pace of new housing supply.
Overall, Washington in recent years has seen high levels of overall population expansion. According to data from the Census Bureau, Washington ranked sixth among all states by percentage growth between 2020 and 2023. But population growth, much like price increases, has many components. And in the Seattle metropolitan statistical area (MSA), growth is increasingly being driven by international migration. Of the 66,500 net residents added to the Seattle MSA last year, roughly 64,000 were international migrants. Domestic migration, by contrast, recorded a net loss of around 11,000 people, with natural change (births minus deaths) accounting for the remainder. In other words, more Americans are leaving the metro than arriving, and without international migration, the region’s population would likely be shrinking.
This trend of increasing reliance on international migration is being seen across the US, but it is particularly concentrated in the Seattle metro. One reason is the strength and structure of the local job market. Many multinational companies have either their headquarters or significant operations in the region—including Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta—and as those companies have grown, so has the share of international workers supporting them.
That the Seattle metro's population growth, and by extension its housing market, is tied to international migration is positive but leaves the state open to vulnerabilities. The current federal government has taken a more restrictive stance on foreign migration, both legal and otherwise. These effects have yet to fully show in the data, but if they persist, may slow some of the growth Seattle would otherwise expect in the years ahead.
Washington was one of the fastest-growing states in the country last year. In the Seattle MSA, this surge in population was overwhelmingly driven by one source.
THE WORLD COMES CALLING
DATA: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH, ANNUAL, 2010-2024, SEATTLE-TACOMA--BELLEVUE MSA
SOURCE: THE CENSUS BUREAU
home is where the work is
Remote work has taken hold in Seattle in a way few other cities have seen, with lasting effects on the downtown core.
If the traffic in Seattle has seemed a little lighter in recent years, it’s not just your imagination. Fewer people are heading into the office each day, and it’s thinning out the morning rush.
Seattle boasts the highest rate of remote working among US cities, with 31% of all workers doing so from home between 2020-2023. That is more than double the national average of 14%, reflecting the region’s more educated labor force which typically has a higher rate of remote work. In 2019, the share of remote workers in Seattle was just 7%, and while office workers in places like New York City have nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels, that has not been the case here.
A recent study from the Downtown Seattle Association found that average weekday worker traffic in the downtown area in 2024 was just 56% of 2019 levels. And per data from CoStar, commercial businesses are being impacted as well, with vacancy rates at a record high of 30% in the central business district.
DESKLESS IN SEATTLE
DATA: TOP 15 CITIES BY SHARE OF REMOTE WORKERS, 2024, UNITED STATES
SOURCE: THE CENSUS BUREAU
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